Despite growing hopes that a potential U.S. recession could eventually lift Bitcoin’s price, analysts are warning crypto investors not to get ahead of themselves. In a research note released on April 11, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, cautioned that it’s too early to expect a bullish surge, even as economic signals begin to point toward deeper cracks in the system. “Credit spreads are widening again,” Thielen wrote, flagging it as a red flag that “recessionary concerns may be seeping deeper into the economy.” For crypto enthusiasts hoping that monetary easing will pump Bitcoin’s price, Thielen’s message was clear: not yet. Historically, Bitcoin has shown mixed reactions during moments of economic uncertainty. While long-term inflation hedges and liquidity expansions can work in its favor, Thielen explained that the first signs of recession — such as a Fed rate cut or a surprise currency devaluation — tend to rattle the market before helping it. “When China devalues or the Fed makes its first cut, Bitcoin often sells off initially,” he said. “It’s a reaction to confirmed economic weakness, not strength.” Traders Wait on Fed On April 10, David Sacks, a senior advisor on crypto and AI policy at the White House, echoed calls for monetary easing, noting the core Consumer Price Index had its smallest annual increase since March 2021, at 2.8%. Still, traders are cautious — CME’s FedWatch Tool places the odds of no rate cut in May at nearly 65%. For now, Bitcoin’s path forward is less about optimism and more about navigating turbulence. According to Thielen, when credit spreads start widening on a year-over-year basis — as they are now — Bitcoin historically faces increased selling pressure and longer recovery timelines. Adding to the uncertainty is the US Dollar Index (DXY), which has dropped nearly 3% over the past five days. In a post on X, The Kobeissi Letter summed it up bluntly: “The US dollar has exited the room. Once again, something is broken.” Still Room for Hope — Just Not Now While the current signals suggest caution, there remains optimism on the horizon. BlackRock’s head of digital assets, Robbie Mitchnick, recently said a recession could end up being a “big catalyst” for Bitcoin — just not in its early stages. “Bitcoin may thrive in a recession,” Mitchnick noted, “but that depends on when and how it hits.” For now, it seems crypto’s next bullish chapter may still be waiting in the wings. The post Bitcoin Recession Playbook: Opportunity or Illusion? appeared first on TheCoinrise.com .