Summary Bitcoin surged from $74,434 to $112,000 by May 21, 2025, but pulled back to $103,127. Weekly charts target $125,000–130,000; daily charts show consolidation with support at $97,500–103,000. The global bond crisis and U.S. debt boost Bitcoin's appeal; sentiment and seasonality favor gains until mid-June. MicroStrategy's $84B Bitcoin plan drives prices but risks future losses. Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) together with all those Bitcoin spot ETFs like IBIT , FBTC , BITO , ARKB , BITB , HODL , BRRR , EZBC , BITX and BTCW as well as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ( GBTC ) has staged a stunning recovery since its April 6th, 2025, low of USD 74,434, surging past the USD 100,000 milestone to hit a new all-time high of USD 112,000 by May 21st. Driven by strong inflows into Bitcoin Spot ETFs, increasing institutional acceptance, and a supportive U.S. political climate under Donald Trump, the rally has been impressive. However, over the last few days, momentum has slowed down and Bitcoin has pulled back to around USD 103,000ish. Overall, Bitcoin is still holding comfortably above the important USD 100,000 mark, though. Review Since the panic low on April 6th, 2025, at USD 74,434, Bitcoin initially surged to around USD 86,000. This was followed by a week of sideways movement before another upward push propelled prices into the USD 93,000 to USD 97,000 range. A subsequent week-long consolidation preceded Bitcoin breaking through the psychological USD 100,000 barrier. Over the next 12 days, prices stabilized well above this level. Finally, on Wednesday, May 21st, Bitcoin broke out to a new all-time high. The upward momentum continued steadily, with the new peak now at USD 112,000. Due to the temporarily declining stock markets, Bitcoin lost its upward trajectory, however. Even though still trading comfortably above the psychological level of USD 100,000, Bitcoin has dropped back to USD 103,127 over the last 10 days. This well-deserved rest should lay the foundation for the next advance towards new all time-highs. Overall, the two-and-a-half-month correction in early April, when Bitcoin briefly fell below USD 75,000 amid collapsing stock markets, appears in hindsight to have been a healthy breather, as anticipated. The current rally is fueled by strong capital inflows into Bitcoin Spot ETFs, growing institutional adoption, and positive political signals, particularly from the crypto-friendly stance of the U.S. government under Donald Trump. Technical Analysis for Bitcoin in US Dollar Weekly Chart: Price Target Around USD 125,000 to USD 130,000 Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of June 1st, 2025. (TradingView) The return to the neckline at approximately USD 75,000 and the strong rally over the past seven weeks have reaffirmed the large cup-and-handle formation on the weekly chart. This suggests Bitcoin is on track to reach our second price target for this formation, in the range of approximately USD 125,000 to USD 130,000. Given the recent dynamic upward movement and new all-time highs, this target could be achieved within the next four weeks already. However, we do not expect significant further price increases before the summer lull. Should Bitcoin have topped out already, your price target has to be postponed towards the 3rd or 4th quarter, though. The weekly Stochastic indicator is already in overbought territory, while the bulls still need to push the upper Bollinger Band (currently at USD 111,294) higher. Short-term consolidations or sharp but temporary pullbacks remain possible, as the bulls still have considerable work ahead. Overall, the weekly chart remains bullish despite being overbought. In fact, it is still pointing to a continuation of the upward trend toward USD 125,000 to USD 130,000. Only if the stock markets, which are closely correlated with Bitcoin, weaken again would a sustained drop below the psychological USD 100,000 mark call our optimistic outlook into question. Daily Chart: Short-Lived Consolidation above USD 100,000 Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of June 1st, 2025. (TradingView) On the daily chart, once the Stochastic oscillator had lost its embedded status on Friday 23rd of May, a short-term pullback started. So far, Bitcoin has pulled back towards USD 103,127. Our maximum price target for this healthy but probably short-lived pullback lies between approximately USD 103,000 and USD 97,500, as the rapidly rising 50-day moving average (USD 98,580) is already nearing current price levels. The lower daily Bollinger Band (USD 101,466) might stop the bears soon. Below that, the next strong support is the rising 200-day moving average (USD 94,814). Downside risk should thus remain very manageable. Overall, the daily chart is bearish in the short term, but the Stochastic oscillator is nearing oversold territory. Once the turning has been achieved, the probabilities for a rise to around USD 125,000 by early summer remain strong. Bitcoin Sentiment - Slightly Too Optimistic Crypto Fear & Greed Index, as of June 1st, 2025. (Bitcoin Magazine Pro) The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 56 out of 100. Compared to the lows of 15 to 18 in early April, market sentiment has completely reversed. In hindsight, the contrarian setup assumed six weeks ago proved ideal. While the current sentiment is not yet excessively euphoric, it is somewhat overly optimistic. CMC Crypto Fear & Greed Index, as of May 22nd, 2025. (Coinmarketcap) The CMC Crypto Fear & Greed Index from CoinMarketCap also indicates slightly elevated optimism. Overall, sentiment is on the path to euphoria, but there is still room before it becomes clearly excessive. Bitcoin Seasonality - Extremely Positive Until Mid-June Bitcoin Seasonality as of May 22nd, 2025. (Seasonax) This year, Bitcoin is following its seasonal pattern. As expected, the next upward move began in April. Based on the statistical price behavior of the past 15 years, this could continue into the second or third week of June. By mid- to end-June, we expect a potential top formation and a gradual transition into the weaker summer phase. Altcoins may continue to rise slightly longer than Bitcoin. However, if U.S. stock markets follow their classic "Sell in May" pattern, momentum could begin to wane rather soon. In summary, the seasonal outlook remains green until around mid-June. The next two to four weeks could bring strong Bitcoin price gains. Sound Money - Bitcoin vs. Gold (Bitcoin/Gold Ratio) Bitcoin/Gold-ratio, daily chart as of June 1st, 2025. (TradingView) With Bitcoin at around USD 105,000 and gold ( XAUUSD:CUR ) at approximately USD3,301050 per troy ounce, one Bitcoin currently buys about 31.8 ounces of gold. Conversely, one ounce of gold costs about 0.031 Bitcoin. The last few weeks brought a significant recovery of over +35% for Bitcoin against gold since April 11th. From a low of around 25, the Bitcoin/Gold ratio has risen sharply to currently 32 over the past seven weeks. While gold prices consolidated sideways at a high level, Bitcoin's strong price surge drove the trend reversal in the ratio. After breaking out of a falling wedge, the ratio swiftly reclaimed its rising 200-day line (33). With this widely observed average acting as a barrier and probably soon as support, the ratio should start attempting to push higher. The next resistance zone awaits at around 35. If this is breached, a rise to the 39-40 range in the coming weeks is quite realistic. In summary, the Bitcoin/Gold ratio has clearly shifted in favor of Bitcoin. Bitcoin's outperformance against gold is likely to continue despite elevated volatility. If gold prices remain roughly at USD 3,300 and Bitcoin reaches our price target of around USD 125,000, a Bitcoin/Gold ratio of approximately 39-40 would be achieved. Macro Update - Japan as a Warning Sign of the Global Bond Crisis The global sovereign debt crisis is unfolding gradually before our eyes. Japanese Wholesale Rice Prices as of May 25th, 2025. (The Kobeissi Letter) In Japan, prices are rising sharply: wholesale rice prices surged by 98.4% year-over-year in April, the highest increase since 1971. Energy prices also rose by 9.3% after government subsidies ended in March. As a result, inflation (CPI excluding fresh food) climbed to 3.5% in April, marking the fifth consecutive month above 3%. Meanwhile, Japan's economy contracted by 0.7% in Q1 2025, the first decline in a year. Japan was the first developed nation to experiment with Quantitative Easing (QE) and Yield Curve Control (YCC) to keep interest rates low after the economic crash of the 1980s. With a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 250%, Japan has been mired in economic stagnation for decades, akin to a patient on life support sustained by zero or negative interest rate policies (NIRP). The global money supply surge in response to the COVID-19 pandemic triggered inflation again, but attempts to raise interest rates led to the collapse of the Yen carry trade in August 2024, shaking global markets. On August 5th, 2024, Japan's stock market suffered its worst loss since 1987. New challenges, such as Trump's tariffs and negative GDP growth, show Japan remains trapped in crisis. Japan's Economic Crisis: Loss of Interest Rate Control and Rising Debt Burden Yield on 40-Year Japanese Government Bonds as of May 26th, 2025. (TradingView) The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is increasingly losing control, torn between fighting inflation and recession. Yield Curve Control, Japan's last trump card, which involves buying its own government bonds, is no longer effective, as long-term interest rates are becoming unmanageable. Nevertheless, the Japanese government plans to continue repurchasing 30- and 40-year government bonds, as their prices have plummeted in recent weeks, driving yields (and thus debt servicing costs) higher. The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds surged by 100 basis points in just 45 days. Over USD 500 billion in 40-year bonds lost more than 20% of their value in six weeks. No one wants to hold these long-term bonds due to Japan's exorbitant debt levels and unfavorable demographics (a shrinking working-age population). Japan's Dilemma Bank of Japan Holds Over 50% of Japanese Government Bonds as of May 26th, 2025. (The Kobeissi Letter) These factors make productive debt repayment impossible; the only option would be to print more money, which would significantly devalue the Yen. Due to uncertainty, inflation risks, and systemic dangers, investors are avoiding these long-term bonds. The BoJ already holds 52% of all Japanese government bonds and has been the primary buyer of newly issued debt for decades due to lack of market demand. Amid the current crisis, Japan's Finance Ministry plans to reduce the issuance of long-term bonds and repurchase existing ones to prevent further price declines. However, this blocks genuine price discovery and violates free market principles. The funds for repurchasing are provided through additional money printing, further accelerating the yen devaluation. Japan faces a choice: accept falling bond prices and higher yields or print more Yen to repurchase bonds and support the market. Historically, governments sacrifice the currency to save the bond market, leading to inflation. This dynamic, visible in the world's fifth-largest economy, exposes the weaknesses of the global fiat system. U.S. Sovereign Debt Has Risen by 50% U.S. Sovereign Debt Costs as of April 9th, 2025. (Holger Zschäpitz) Japan serves as a serious warning signal, as all G7 nations may soon face similar challenges. For instance, U.S. sovereign debt has surged dramatically from USD 23 trillion in 2019 to over USD 36 trillion, a 50% increase. With a persistent deficit of approximately USD 2 trillion, the notion of a "U.S. debt ceiling" is a farce. Experts expect the ceiling to be raised soon, potentially pushing debt to USD 37 trillion. Unsurprisingly, the U.S. recently lost its last AAA credit rating after Moody's downgraded it from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising sovereign debt and higher interest burdens. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has posted one of its strongest recoveries, rising over 24% since April 7th. However, while the crack-up boom (a catastrophic rally driven by money supply expansion and loss of confidence) has regained momentum, numerous sectors of the U.S. economy are showing concerning signals. Over 6.5% of auto loan borrowers are at least 60 days delinquent, a historical high. Serious delinquencies (90+ days overdue) are also rising for mortgages, home equity loans, auto loans, credit cards, and student loans. Global Bond Crisis Global bond markets are gradually recognizing that yield curve control is increasingly failing. The illusion of debt sustainability is fading. Without yield curve control as a safeguard, the psychology of long-term debt security collapses, as the "just do it like Japan" strategy no longer works. This creates a dangerous cycle: rising interest rates exacerbate deficits, requiring more bond issuance, which in turn drives rates higher. The impact of this crisis extends far beyond Japan, as the country plays a key role in the global U.S. dollar system through the massive Yen carry trade. Stopping this vicious cycle would require political will on a scale never seen before. The Rise of Alternative Assets Unsurprisingly, gold, Bitcoin, and bond yields are rising independently of traditional financial indicators like rate cuts, inflation, or risk sentiment. For a few days, Bitcoin had recently surpassed Google (Alphabet, GOOGL ) in market capitalization. This underscores Bitcoin's growing significance as an asset class and shows markets are increasingly decoupling from traditional valuation metrics. Michael Saylor's Risky Bitcoin Bet A key driver of the Bitcoin boom is the aggressive strategy of Michael Saylor and his company, Strategy ( MSTR ) (formerly MicroStrategy), along with its imitators. Through the "42/42 Plan," Saylor aims to raise USD 84 billion by 2027 via stock issuances and convertible bonds to buy more Bitcoin. This relies on risky financial instruments, including mispriced convertible bonds with unrealistically low volatility assumptions and yield-generating stocks that lack sustainable returns. Hedge funds exploit this mispricing through volatility arbitrage, buying the bonds, shorting the stock, and profiting without direct interest in Bitcoin. Saylor's model resembles a Ponzi scheme in parts, as the promised stock returns are funded by new investor capital rather than operational profits or sustainable revenue. As long as Bitcoin's price keeps rising, this structure holds; however, a price drop could lead to significant losses and instability. Instead of a solid Bitcoin reserve, this creates a highly speculative financial system based on arbitrage, speculative inflows, and a sustained price rally. The growing number of imitators drawn by this model's success suggests the next Bitcoin bear market could be particularly painful. Nevertheless, this artificial demand (leveraged buying) is likely to drive Bitcoin prices higher for now. The end of the rally is not yet in sight, and a full-blown buying panic is likely still to come. We currently expect this in the fall or Q4 2025. Conclusion: Bitcoin - Record Chase Will Continue Since the panic low of around USD 74,400 on April 6th, 2025, Bitcoin has staged an impressive recovery, decisively breaking through the psychologically significant USD 100,000 mark after a dynamic rally. On May 21st, it reached a new all-time high of USD 112,000 before the current pullback to USD 103,127 started. Technical analysis confirms the bullish momentum: the cup-and-handle formation on the weekly chart points to a price target of around USD 125,000 to USD 130,000, while the ongoing short-term consolidation should hold above USD 101,000. Sentiment is not yet overheated, and seasonality suggests continued positive momentum until mid- to end-June. Macro-economically, the global bond crisis, particularly Japan's Yen weakness and high inflation, as well as the U.S.'s record debt levels, enhance Bitcoin's appeal as an alternative asset. Michael Saylor's aggressive 42/42 Plan, aiming to raise USD 84 billion for Bitcoin purchases via convertible bonds and stock issuances, further fuels the rally but carries significant long-term risks. However, should the Bitcoin market turn, MicroStrategy and its imitators could face dramatic losses, potentially deepening the next bear market. Geopolitical and Other Risks to Bitcoin's Ascent Of course, the bullish thesis projecting Bitcoin to reach USD 150,000 by the end of 2025, driven by institutional adoption and its role as an inflation hedge, faces certain risks, with geopolitical instability posing a particularly acute threat. Severe geopolitical events, such as escalating conflicts like in Ukraine and the trade war, or a collapse in global economic stability, could disrupt Bitcoin's upward trajectory. While one could assume that global uncertainties may drive Bitcoin adoption, extreme scenarios, like a severe recession or credit market collapse, could trigger widespread liquidations of risk assets, including and especially Bitcoin, as investors prioritize liquidity. Macroeconomic pressures, such as rising bond yields (e.g., the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.75%), which could exacerbate selling pressure during geopolitical turmoil, may potentially push Bitcoin lower. While Bitcoin's fundamentals remain strong, these risks, particularly the unpredictable impact of geopolitical instability, demand careful monitoring to navigate the volatile path to USD 125,000 and USD 150,000. Overall, the short- to medium-term environment remains highly constructive, and we expect Bitcoin prices to continue rising in the coming weeks.