Summary Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR) is pivoting from Bitcoin mining to high-performance computing for AI, aiming to reduce dependency on crypto volatility. BTDR has surged over 200% in the past year, but current valuation may have outpaced fundamentals, warranting a Hold rating with a $29 price target. While BTDR is well-positioned for AI and Bitcoin tailwinds, peers like CleanSpark and Iris Energy offer stronger operational metrics and may be better alternatives. Risks include Bitcoin seasonality, market pullbacks, and execution challenges in AI HPC; a conservative approach is favored, with 11% upside potential. Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR) is a Bitcoin mining company that is currently diversifying its business into a high-demand, high-performance computing market. This is one of a few legacy miners that has decided to reduce dependency on Bitcoin and its volatility, and strengthen fundamentals with a focus on a high-growth, AI-tailored industry. BTDR surged by more than 200% over the past 12 months, underscoring a significant outperformance versus the benchmark. However, although I believe the company is tied to significant revenue tailwinds, driven by AI demand, and Bitcoin's seasonality and adoption, I am not sure whether this is the best alternative to raise exposure to AI and Bitcoin via the equity market. I believe Bitdeer Technologies may appear to be well-positioned to ride this AI wave, but I also think that sentiment may have run ahead of its fundamentals, and I would not be surprised if the stock consolidates over the following year. I rate Bitdeer Technologies Group a Hold with a $29 price target over the next year. This suggests about 11% upside potential. I think the stock price may appreciate in price further, but I also believe it may offer a market-like performance. HPC AI Pivot As A Catalyst, And Bitcoin Seasonality May Still Be In Play The company is not the only legacy Bitcoin miner that has decided to pivot to AI-related operations, diversifying its business and reducing dependency on digital assets. MARA Holdings , CleanSpark , Ire n Limited , Cipher Mining , and others have shifted to a high-demand landscape, and the market has rewarded them with an upside. BTDR: Stock Price Performance Versus Peers (Seeking Alpha) Bitdeer appears to be the 3rd best-performing miner in terms of stock price appreciation over the past year. This is also supported by a neutral thesis, as I think that there may be better alternatives in the landscape, which have not run the trend significantly yet. After about a 209% surge over a 12-month period, I would not be surprised if profit-taking could occur. To support my narrative of other appealing alternatives available, I would like to separate two business segments: Bitcoin mining and the AI/HPC pivot. I think investors who are seeking to diversify in Bitcoin mining operations may find CleanSpark a better fit. Bitdeer has recently announced its self-mined hashrate has reached 35 EH/s , which appears to be impressive, yet CLSK operates at 50 EH/s capacity , highlighting an advantage. If long-term investors are seeking AI/HPC exposure, IREN Ltd may appear to be a more favorable opportunity, highlighting it has paused BTC mining operations expansion at 50 EH/s with a more direct focus on the HPC market. BTDR: Revenue (TTM) Versus Peers (YCharts) Although I think it may be difficult to compare one company to another, I think it may be a rational decision to analyze where your selection stands versus its peers. Of course, this does not mean that on the surface level, a more appealing opportunity could become a better investment, or vice versa, but I believe that reviewing your thesis is always a worthwhile decision. I think that BTDR appears to be well-positioned and could successfully ride AI and BTC tailwinds further. However, when comparing it to its peers and highlighting a massive surge so far, I am not sure whether this trend of outperformance could continue. On the upside, the high-performance computing for AI market was valued at $112 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach about $381 billion by 2029, highlighting a 26.3% CAGR over the next 5 years. This expectation for the market to triple in size may act as a significant tailwind for all the miners who have pivoted to the AI landscape. If the AI demand continues, and anticipation for market growth materializes, BTDR, along with other AI HPC names, could rally further. Bitcoin Seasonality May Be In Play, And That Is Another Argument For Bullish Thesis Although a pivot to the AI landscape diversified the business, the market may still see Bitdeer as a typical Bitcoin miner. This means that the company's stock price performance may be highly correlated with Bitcoin volatility. Nevertheless, the last three quarters of the year historically appear to be favorable for cryptocurrency sentiment. BTDR: Bitcoin Seasonality (Coinglass.com) The table above indicates that on average, through Q4, Bitcoin appreciates by 78% , while the median returns are roughly equal 48%. Although this quarter the cryptocurrency experienced about a 6% decline, I believe the seasonality may still be in play. To support this, I would like to highlight a few key tailwinds: pro-crypto administration, Gen Z's preference for crypto assets, and Bitcoin treasury companies. The current administration appears to be pro-crypto, which helps shape a clearer crypto asset landscape. For instance, on July 18 the President Trump signed the GENIUS Act , which introduced a framework for stablecoins. I think this may be significantly beneficial for the cryptocurrency environment in the long term, as a legal framework supports digital asset adoption. I think this article paints the demographic tailwind well for crypto assets in general. The Gen Z generation favors cryptocurrencies over any other assets, and I believe the trend is likely to continue. This would imply that cryptocurrencies in the future may have a strong demand supported by Gen Z's favorable adoption of assets. BTDR: Bitcoin Treasury Companies (Bitcointreasuries.net) There are more and more publicly listed companies that are adopting Bitcoin as treasury. For instance, BTDR appears to be 35th on the list with 2,061 Bitcoins on its balance sheet. These companies may provide a floor price for the crypto asset, and with continued coin accumulation, BTC may become a less volatile digital asset in the long term. Despite Bitcoin miners pivoting to the AI landscape, I think the market may tie crypto sentiment to these companies further. This tailwind can also act as a headwind if the cryptocurrency landscape experiences a significant shift in sentiment. Nevertheless, I think that BTC seasonality may remain in play, which could boost equities with crypto exposure higher. However, this is not guaranteed, and that supports my more conservative approach toward BTDR's future performance. BTDR Stock Is Not Cheap, And That Could Weigh On The Stock Price The company trades at a forward P/E (GAAP) of 24.64 , which highlights a 26% discount to peers of 33.35, and that is another argument for a bullish narrative. However, I still argue that BTDR appears expensive. The forward EV/Sales and Price/Sales of 10.09 and 9.53, respectively, indicate a 3x premium at the midpoint versus the sector median of 3.56 and 3.53. This also suggests that the market may have already priced in the future revenue growth for the company. Therefore, if any uncertainties arise regarding the pivot to AI, sentiment may change, and the company may experience a selloff. This also implies that even if BTDR successfully pivots to the AI HPC landscape, this may not necessarily translate into the stock price appreciation, and this makes me cautious. On the upside, the company appears to be a medium-leveraged business. Bitdeer has roughly $626 million in total obligations and $304 million in cash, which partially offsets the debt. This indicates that management has financial flexibility to use debt instruments, if needed. BTDR: Capital Structure (Seeking Alpha) The forward revenue growth rate of 43% highlights that the trend of top-line growth may continue further. This also reflects approximately 6x outperformance versus the industry's average of 7.35%, supporting a bullish stance for the company. Management achieved a significant 168% Capex growth over the past year, underscoring a 26x outperformance versus the sector median of 6.37%. Although I think a pivot to the AI landscape was the right business decision, this could act as a headwind if heavy capital expenditure investments do not translate into significant top and bottom line growth. This is another area to monitor for investors. On the downside, BTDR's profitability metrics are weak. The company operates at a roughly 5% gross profit margin (TTM) , which highlights a 90% difference versus peers of nearly 50%. This significantly weighs on the stock price and highly contributes to my neutral stance for this stock. For instance, CleanSpark operates at a 52% gross profit margin (TTM), and IREN at about 68% , supporting the thesis that there may be better alternatives in the market. The market anticipates $0.96 in diluted EPS for FY2026, and I think this could be a reasonable estimate. If AI demand continues, BTC remains around an all-time high, and Bitdeer can successfully scale into the HPC market, this result may come in conservative. However, there are a lot of moving parts, and based on my analysis, even with positive tailwinds, BTDR's valuation has run ahead of its fundamentals. If we apply about 30x earnings multiple to a $0.96 EPS for FY2026, we come in at my price target of about $29, indicating a 11% upside. I believe this would be a rational earnings multiple, which highlights positive crypto and AI/HPC tailwinds, yet would also consider capped upside given already significant appreciation in the stock price. Conclusion: Bitdeer Technologies Is A Hold I think that Bitdeer Technologies may appear to be a compelling opportunity for long-term investors who favor digital assets and tailwinds tied to artificial intelligence adoption. However, the company has significantly appreciated in the stock price over the past 12 months, and I think that valuation may run ahead of its fundamentals. BTDR has risks and concerns tied to its business. The Bitcoin seasonality may not materialize, the broader market has not experienced a pullback since the April lows, and trade tensions between the US and China remain. These could significantly change sentiment and drag the stock price down. Moreover, continued HPC demand is not guaranteed, and there is execution risk tied to this pivot. This is why I favor a more conservative approach and believe Bitdeer Technologies is a Hold. I think a $29 price target over the next 12 months appears to be rational, indicating an 11% upside possibility. 12 Wall Street analysts forecast a $28 price target, suggesting an 8% upside potential. This comes in line with my expectations, but time will tell how this will turn out.