Summary DeFi Development Corp. remains a Buy, now trading at a significant discount to NAV after a 54% stock price decline. DFDV's SOL-focused treasury model generates strong staking yields, with Q3 revenue up 648% year-over-year and SPS accumulation continuing to grow. Recent developments include a warrant-based dividend, preferred stock offering, and the launch of a Treasury Accelerator program to drive future growth. Despite near-term volatility and risks, DFDV's value-creative model and current discount make it attractive for long-term investors under $12.18. DeFi Development Corp. ( DFDV ) is a digital asset treasury company ("DAT") focused on Solana ( SOL-USD ) that I covered last month and that just released Q3 2025 earnings . While I initially wanted to cover this again after Q4 results, investors were curious about the current outlook, and I returned to reaffirm my Buy rating, now with a discount to NAV. Summary Of Previous Thesis When I covered DFDV in October, I rated it a Buy. Unlike DATs based on Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ), which are businesses based on financing BTC accumulation favorably, DeFi's SOL-based model allows it to have underlying operations to support cash flow. Screenshot from previous thesis (October 2025 Investor Presentation) This primarily stems from their ability to stake their SOL holdings and produce yield from it. Typically yielding 10%, this exceeds the coupons on their fixed-income securities, allowing leveraged returns and sufficient coverage of their cost of capital. This is not something a BTC treasury can do, which depends on future financings to cover their cost of capital. Screenshot from previous thesis (October 2025 Investor Presentation) In addition to earnings through asset yields, this would also be enhanced by the long-term upside of SOL, which DeFi's team believes is a 50x from a $200 SOL price to $10,000. As they build up their assets, potential exists for other accretive revenue opportunities. I believed that they were in a reasonable position to execute on their vision, being the first movers for a SOL-based DAT. While crypto retains a speculative element, I believed there was room for long-term upside for buyers who invest at an mNAV of 1.2 or less. As DFDV was about 1x at the time, I believed this made it reasonably undervalued and rated it a Buy. Updates Over Previous Month Over the past month, DFDV's stock price suffered a 54% decline. This brought it from just over $14 per share to about $7. Some of this can be explained easily, and other things cannot. DFDV 1M Price History (Seeking Alpha) Decline In SOL The first obvious explanation is that SOL has declined by about 30% on its own. SOL 1M Price History (Seeking Alpha) Being a SOL treasury, this means that DFDV's liquidation value would be down, and so it's not surprising that this occurred. What's curious, however, is that the stock started this period near an mNAV of 1. While a sharp decline might make sense for an mNAV premium, it's curious that this almost entirely represents a deepening discount for DFDV. Other Factors Warrant-Based Dividend: Another interesting development was the declaration of a warrant-based dividend ( DFDVW ) on October 28th. Shareholders received 1 warrant for every 10 shares they hold, with an exercise price of $22.50 and an expiry of January 2028. Counting those received from the convertible securities, these warrants allowed for the potential issuance of 3.9M common shares. Seemingly in response, DFDV was down 5.75% on the day of the announcement. Preferred Stock Offering: Shifting from convertible debt toward a strategy of convertible preferred stock, they announced plans to issue up to $65M, at $100 per share, with a 10% dividend, which will trade under the ticker CHAD. The conversion rate is not yet official. Delayed Form 10Q: While they did release Q3 2025 results, this coincided with a notification of late filing for their Form 10Q, with the expectation that it should be ready on November 19. In addition to that, the general nervousness of markets in the month also seemed to have a pronounced impact on DFDV. Q3 2025 Results Despite the delayed Form 10Q, Q3 2025 results were still announced, their Q3 shareholder letter, and an earnings call was hosted on their official YouTube channel. The letter reflected their ability to produce strong revenue through SOL staking: Total revenue for the quarter was $4.6M, up 648% Y/Y. Of this, $3.8M was recognized as Digital Asset Treasury Revenue under U.S. GAAP, representing income from staking and validator operations. This reflected an Average Organic Yield of 11.4%, above their target yield of 10%. QoQ SOL Accumulation (Q3 2025 Shareholder Letter) Outside of their ability to produce yield, their accumulation strategy has also been effective, with SOL-per-Share ("SPS") growing 13% and 9% on a basic and diluted basis, respectively. It highlights their ability to copy the accumulation strategy pioneered by BTC treasuries while also running an effective operating business. That operating business is also expanding, with a Treasury Accelerator program announced. As mentioned in the letter: The goal of the TA is to enable world-class teams to launch Solana DATs in markets where high investor appetite for crypto, limited institutional access, and local tax dynamics create compelling opportunities for mNAV accretion...We will retain equity stakes in each franchise and, in some cases, asset management agreements. The TA program is designed to be both NAV and revenue accretive in both the near and long term. While immediate impacts will be visible in quarters to come, it did showcase the willingness of DeFi to be creative and adaptive with their DAT model, planting seeds for more growth and revenue opportunities. Outlook And Valuation When I rated DFDV a Buy last time, it traded much closer to an mNAV of 1x. With the current discount on the market bringing it near 0.69x, it stands to reason that I would maintain my Buy rating. DFDV Dashboard (defidevcorp.com) Nevertheless, buyers have to ask themselves what they will do in the event of a bear market. I'll quote what their COO-CIO, Parker White, communicated to me recently: Long term holders should be happy if we underperform SOL to the downside, as long as we outperform SOL to the upside. As a leveraged bet on SOL, DFDV's near-term performance can be very difficult to predict. When SOL is down, it is likely to be down even more, but there are reasons why it is still positioned to perform well over the long term: Staking yields remain in tact Financing is not mark-to-market and of manageable size Buybacks can be pursued opportunistically The latter is a question that I have seen readers and investors on other platforms ask relentlessly, particularly in light of their $100M buyback program approved in September. With a market cap barely over $200, this would have a tremendous ability to grow the intrinsic value per share. During the earnings call, this was addressed, but management remained tight-lipped about specific repurchases, as it would give up their advantage and ability to pursue a discount. Additionally, they have also mentioned their general inclination to use cash to acquire more SOL and grow SPS that way. Monetizing their SOL to do discounted buybacks would grow SPS, but it would also potentially realize gains and create taxable events that eat into the discount. For these reasons, while a token use of the buybacks may occur, I anticipate these would be minimal, even if the mNAV discount persists for an extended time. While buybacks feel like they would "rescue" DFDV, the investment is only really in trouble if they are unable to maintain enough attention to raise capital and grow SPS over time. Their long-term guidance is to raise DFDV's SPS to an even 1 from its current 0.0729. If anything, a lack of volatility in SOL would make it hard for them to make acquisitions opportunistically and meet this goal. I think these two things are the risk factors that can limit DFDV's long-term upside, while the speculative future of crypto overall remains the primary risk factor for the downside. Nevertheless, I think the current discount to mNAV prices in many of these risks, and I still maintain that their value-creative model warrants even buying at a 1.2x mNAV. With recent prices and SOL accumulated, I think this makes DFDV a buy under $12.18. Q3 2025 Shareholder Letter One more thing I will highlight is that Q3's net income was a strongly positive $56M. As this exceeds the staking revenue, unrealized gains on SOL are a large portion of this. If the current depreciation of SOL persists until the end of Q4, that quarter's results may appear to be terrible. As long as the staking yields are intact and SPS grows, however, DFDV should be doing fine at a long-term investment. Conclusion I believe holders of DFDV will continue to see months like this one. While buybacks are possible, I do not think investors should count on them as a form of bailout. Rather, they need to count on management's ability to raise capital, acquire SOL, stake their position, and expand revenue opportunities (such as the Treasury Accelerator). By taking a position at the current discount and sizing their positions appropriately, investors can manage their risk. As the discount speaks for itself and the operations are not currently distressed, I believe that is sufficient reason to maintain my Buy rating.