Ethereum price faces a decisive zone: ETH must reclaim $4,841 to resume its rally toward $5,864; failure risks a correction to $2,750. Short-term momentum hinges on RSI lows, open interest resets and realized-price pressure as traders decide whether to lock profits. ETH must reclaim $4,841 to reverse the downtrend and target $5,864. ETH’s 4‑hour RSI hit 14.5 — the lowest since April 2025 — hinting at a potential short-term bounce. A whale bought $235.7M in ETH this week and now holds about $19.4M in unrealized losses, underscoring dip-buy interest. Meta description: Ethereum price outlook — ETH must reclaim $4,841 to avoid a drop to $2,750; watch RSI, open interest and whale activity. Read analysis now. What is the current Ethereum price outlook? Ethereum price is testing a critical inflection zone: reclaiming $4,841 is essential to confirm a bullish reversal toward $5,864; failure risks a pullback to $2,750. Short-term indicators (RSI, open interest) suggest both a possible bounce and the risk of deeper correction depending on follow-through. How can ETH reclaim $4,841 and what happens if it fails? For ETH to break the downtrend, buying pressure must push price above $4,841 with sustained volume. A decisive close above that level would re-open the path to prior highs near $5,864. If momentum stalls, on-chain metrics and realized-price pressure increase the likelihood of a corrective move toward $2,750. { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "NewsArticle", "mainEntityOfPage": { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://en.coinotag.com/ethereum-price-outlook-2025" }, "headline": "Ethereum Price Outlook: ETH Must Reclaim $4,841 to Avoid Drop to $2,750", "description": "Ethereum price faces a pivotal zone; reclaiming $4,841 is necessary to resume a rally to $5,864 while failure risks a correction to $2,750. RSI and open interest are key.", "image": [ "https://en.coinotag.com/images/image-402-1024x636.png" ], "author": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "COINOTAG" }, "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "COINOTAG", "url": "https://en.coinotag.com", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://en.coinotag.com/logo.png" } }, "datePublished": "2025-09-26T12:00:00Z", "dateModified": "2025-09-30T08:00:00Z"} Why is the $3,800–$4,841 zone critical for ETH? Front-loaded support and resistance define market structure. The $3,800 area represents near-term support while $4,841 is the key breakout threshold. Analyst commentary (Ali Charts on X) highlights that a successful reclaim of $4,841 would signal a trend change; failure would amplify sell-side pressure toward $2,750. Tweet excerpt: ETH must break $4,841 to reverse the downtrend and aim for $5,864. Fail, and a correction to $2,750 comes into play. pic.twitter.com/ltgOtwXAWu — Ali (@ali_charts) September 26, 2025 Ethereum traded around $3,913 at the time of reporting, a roughly 14% decline over the prior week as volume surged past $57 billion. On-chain metric MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands show ETH between the +0.5σ and +1.0σ bands as of late September 2025, indicating elevated realized-value divergence. How does the RSI support a potential reversal? ETH price momentum indicators are mixed. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index plunged from 82 on Sept. 13 to 14.5 — the lowest since April 2025. Historically, similar extreme RSI lows (April and June 2025) preceded meaningful rallies, suggesting a possible short-term bounce if buying volume appears. Source: Crypto Rover via X When did open interest and whale activity influence the recent move? Open interest recently experienced a sharp reset, one of the largest since early 2024, wiping excessive leverage and reducing short-term speculative pressure. Analyst Darkfost notes this reset — particularly on major derivatives venues — left the market in cleaner condition. At the same time, a whale accumulated approximately $235.7 million in ETH this week and currently shows roughly $19.4 million in unrealized losses. This behavior signals institutional-sized dip buying even as some holders cash profits given the realized price of $2,436. { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "HowTo", "name": "How to interpret Ethereum oversold signals and act", "description": "Steps to read RSI, open interest and realized price to inform trading or risk management decisions.", "step": [ { "@type": "HowToStep", "name": "Check RSI levels", "text": "Confirm extreme RSI readings (e.g., below 20 on the 4-hour) as potential short-term reversal indicators." }, { "@type": "HowToStep", "name": "Assess open interest", "text": "Look for large open interest resets that remove leverage and signal healthier price discovery." }, { "@type": "HowToStep", "name": "Evaluate realized price gap", "text": "Compare market price to realized price to determine how many holders are in profit and the potential selling pressure." }, { "@type": "HowToStep", "name": "Watch whale activity", "text": "Track large buy or sell transactions for evidence of institutional interest; balance this with on-chain metrics." } ]} { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "FAQPage", "mainEntity": [ { "@type": "Question", "name": "What price does Ethereum need to reclaim to resume its rally?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "Ethereum must reclaim $4,841 to reverse the current downtrend and target higher levels around $5,864; failure increases the risk of a correction toward $2,750." } }, { "@type": "Question", "name": "Does the low RSI mean ETH will immediately rally?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "A low RSI is historically a bullish contrarian signal but not a guarantee; a confirming volume-led recovery above key resistance is required to validate a sustained rally." } }, { "@type": "Question", "name": "What on-chain signals are important right now?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "Key signals include MVRV deviation bands, realized price vs. market price, open interest resets, and large whale purchases or disposals." } } ]} Frequently Asked Questions What if ETH fails to break $4,841? If ETH fails at $4,841, selling pressure may escalate and push price toward the next major support near $2,750. Traders should watch stop-flow and leverage removal as these can accelerate declines. How should traders interpret the current whale activity? Whale accumulation of $235.7M in ETH, despite showing $19.4M in paper losses, indicates larger participants may be positioning for longer-term upside while retail decides on near-term profit-taking. Key Takeaways Critical level: Reclaiming $4,841 is necessary to confirm a bullish reversal toward $5,864. Momentum signal: RSI at 14.5 suggests a potential short-term bounce but needs volume confirmation. On-chain context: Open interest reset and whale accumulation indicate reduced leverage and strategic dip buying. Conclusion In summary, the Ethereum price outlook is balanced between a potential bounce from oversold conditions and the risk of a deeper correction if $4,841 remains out of reach. Monitor RSI, open interest, MVRV bands and whale flows for confirmation. COINOTAG will update this analysis as on-chain data and price action evolve.