Summary Bitcoin's recent price movements do not warrant panic. I maintain my previous price prediction of $225,000 for BTC, suggesting that MSTY's triple digit yield will continue for the foreseeable future. Of the four technical indicators I used to forecast BTC price movements a few months ago, only one is flashing yellow, and may be a false negative. A closer examination reveals that the correlation between BTC and other cryptocurrencies - similar to that between gold and silver - helps explain the recent price movements. The crypto ecosystem is beginning to function more like the traditional financial system, which is a positive development. Bitcoin surpassed the $123,000 mark a few weeks ago but then declined, currently hovering around $110,000. Understandably, such a move would create panic among those whose portfolios are directly or indirectly exposed to the asset. To add to their worries, events over the past two weeks are leading many analysts to believe the bull run is over - I disagree. MSTY Refresher Note: This section covers the basics of the ETF. If you have already read the fund's prospectus , you can skip this part. MSTY is the YieldMax MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF, which aims to generate monthly income for its shareholders by providing exposure to Strategy ( MSTR ) stock through three mechanisms: Synthetic long exposure to MSTR Selling covered calls on MSTR stock Credit spreads, which involve selling a call option and buying another at a higher strike price, also on MSTR stock The fund was launched on 2/21/2024 and has a yield of around 150% as of the end of September. As some may have surmised, MSTY is strongly, indeed almost entirely, dependent on MSTR price movements. MSTR, in turn, is a BTC treasury and is highly dependent on BTC price movements. Another important point, which I covered in my last article on MSTY , is that the ETF is not designed for a BTC bear market. As a result, tracking BTC movements and interpreting whether a bull run has ended is of utmost importance in determining whether to continue holding MSTY in a portfolio. Since there has been chatter about BTC's bull run ending, this is an opportune moment to cover this ticker. BTC Price Target: $225,000 In my prior articles on MSTR and MSTY , I used multiple indicators to establish that the BTC bull run will continue, and set a price target of $225,000. Below are the updates on each of those indicators: Fear-And-Greed Index In the article on MSTR, I stated that the FGI has been a reliable indicator for predicting long-term BTC peaks and troughs. To reiterate my rule: “FGI needs to fall twice below the 10-mark to signal a trough and then rise above the 90-mark once to identify a peak.” The FGI already surpassed the 90-mark once in November 2024, and BTC has not shown any signs of weakness. This prompts me to update my rule and state that the FGI should surpass the 90-mark twice - just as it does below 10 to indicate a trough - to signal the end of a bull run. Halving Cycle Based on the theory behind the halving cycle as an indicator, BTC reaches its peak 12–18 months after its halving date. BTC’s last halving occurred on April 20, 2024 , which implies that we are still not at the end of the peak price window , which would be at the end of October - but we are dangerously close. It could be said that this indicator is flashing yellow now, but it may also suggest that halving cycles are no longer reliable for predicting the end of a BTC bull run. One reason for this could be that fact that 19.91M BTC out of the capped total of 21M are already in circulation, indicating that supply-side events may no longer have a strong impact on prices. Given my price target of $225,000, and only two months left to reach there, I'm leaning more towards the latter explanation. 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap This indicator also has not shown any signs of an immediate bear run, or for the foreseeable future for that matter. The dots on the chart need to turn red or orangish to imply that the bull run is over. 2-Year Moving Average Multiplier Last but not least, the 2-year MA multiplier not only provides information about BTC’s peaks and troughs but also indicates the price target. For the BTC price line to cross the upper end of the multiplier, BTC’s price would need to be around $295,000. In my last article, the chart indicated a price of $250,000. I am going to stick with that target, because it is closer to the $225,000 level observed with BTC’s peaks and troughs and the established 3.5 times rule that I discussed in the article on MSTY, under section titled BTC's Next Move . A Tale of Two Metals To become proficient at understanding BTC’s price movements, one needs to understand that BTC does not operate in a vacuum. Put differently, the crypto world comprises more than just BTC, with the next most popular cryptocurrency being Ethereum. More importantly, BTC and ETH have demonstrated statistical relations to each other, similar to the famous asset pair of gold and silver. The prices of those metals have a positive correlation of 0.92 , which in statistical terms means both are quite aligned in terms of bull or bear runs. A quote from an article on Finance Magnates : “In March 2020, the gold-silver ratio rose above 120, more than 40% above its long-term average, indicating that silver was extremely cheap relative to gold, and that gold was extremely expensive relative to silver. In this situation, a trader could either sell gold or buy silver. The smartest decision, however, is to do both. This way, a trader gets exposure to the ratio itself and is essentially placing a bet that the ratio will return to normal with a relatively low risk.” This strong correlation occurs when two asset classes serve a similar purpose , both from a real-world practical and a financial perspective. i.e., Both gold and silver are precious metals that can be used as a store of value or medium of exchange. Both are used to make ornaments and jewelry due to their similarities in malleability and resistance to corrosion. Their conductive properties make them useful in building electronic devices. Implications For BTC BTC and ETH are the digital equivalents of gold and silver - both are built on blockchain architecture, use consensus mechanisms, broadcast transactions, and share similar core principles. I will assume that those holding MSTY in their portfolios are familiar with the similarities and differences between BTC and ETH, so I won’t go into detail here. From a statistical and financial perspective, both are tightly correlated , with a 40-day rolling correlation ranging between 0.82 and 0.95. The primary implication of this relationship between BTC and ETH is the rotation in and out of these cryptos, based on how one moves relative to the other. Stated differently, if BTC has gone through a significant rally and ETH has not, it is likely that ETH will follow in a short period. Since January 2024, BTC has nearly tripled from its starting value of around $40,000, whereas ETH experienced a drawdown of over 50% early in 2024, then recovered - with total returns since early 2024 at only around 33%. This suggests ETH now has to play catch-up and is likely to do so in the coming weeks for the correlation between the two assets to remain intact. The correlation in price movements is further supported by how funds flow within the asset class. If money flows out of one crypto, it should lead to buying in another. Dominance charts, which show the percentage of total crypto market capitalization captured by an asset, are helpful for this analysis. BTC Dominance Chart (TradingView) BTC dominance has shown a downward trend since early June 2025, suggesting it reached its short-term peak around that time. In the same month. ETH Dominance Chart (TradingView) ETH dominance began a strong upward trajectory, indicating a flow of capital from BTC into ETH. Numerically, BTC dominance fell from 65% to 57%, while ETH dominance rose from around 10% to 14%. Because dominance percentages are part of a fixed 100% total, the percentage changes should offset one another. However, BTC’s dominance fell by 8%, while ETH’s rose by only 4%, leaving a 4% gap. This remaining gap is being filled by other cryptos such as Ripple ( dominance chart here ), possibly Solana in the coming weeks ( chart here ), and other top market-cap assets. The Catalyst This shift is not happening by chance. While technical indicators are valuable on their own, real-world catalysts are needed to drive chart movements. For ETH, that catalyst came from news surrounding the potential approval of ETH and other crypto ETFs to allow staking. In simple terms, this would mean that ETH and other crypto ETFs could distribute staking income through the ETFs they represent - effectively becoming yield-bearing ETFs, a significant benefit for investors seeking income from their assets. To put this into perspective, imagine a market where regular equity stocks were not allowed to pay dividends, and a regulatory change suddenly allowed them to do so. To further support my assertion, here are some excerpts from articles informing investors about the massive flow of funds into ETH ETFs: “The mid-week rebound particularly favored Ethereum, which now shows $2.5 billion in net inflows month-to-date, compared to Bitcoin’s $1 billion in outflows. This shift has adjusted the year-to-date picture for both assets. Ethereum inflows now represent about 26% of total assets under management (AuM), while Bitcoin accounts for just 11%.” ( source ) “Most of the recent outperformance of ether is attributed to the outsized fund flows into global Ethereum ETPs and US spot Ethereum ETFs in particular which recorded the highest daily net inflows on record on Monday last week with over +$1 billion in net inflows in a single day across all US issuers.” ( source ) “Fresh money is pouring into the new US spot ETH ETFs. On Monday and Tuesday alone (11-12 August), ETH funds took in roughly $1.54 billion net ($1.02 billion + $524 million), dwarfing the ~$244 million combined net inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs over the same two days.” ( source ) It’s All Good News Many in the crypto community would consider this the start of the alt season, implying that altcoins (cryptos other than BTC) are ready for a rally. The CMC Altcoin Season Index supports this view, showing a steady and clear upward trend over the past few months. However, the start of alt season does not automatically imply the end of BTC season. This distinction is important because if the BTC bull run is not over, or if there is no clear sign of a bear market, then call options on MSTR will continue to be priced favorably. Additionally, a sideways market within a broader bull trend would allow MSTY to collect and retain most of the options premium, as few would finish in-the-money. Moreover, this rotation in-and-out of crypto assets is good news and a sign of a healthy ecosystem because: Money is not leaving the crypto ecosystem, suggesting that confidence in the industry remains strong. Constant rotations support volumes across all cryptos, reducing the chances of stagnation and pools of illiquidity. This allows for healthy price adjustments by cooling overheated assets and lifting those that have been overlooked. Bottom line, the crypto market is beginning to function like a traditional market, where sector and portfolio rebalancing are common. MSTY Risks While I am advocating a 'hold' for MSTY for now, in my previous article on the ETF, I clearly stated that I am not a fan of holding this long term. This is not only because it would perform poorly in a BTC bear run, but also because I am not particularly confident in MSTR. The company's excessive use of leverage and poorly timed BTC purchases do not inspire confidence. The point I want to emphasize here is that MSTR's risks carry over to MSTY. If MSTR were to go bust tomorrow, though there are no indications of that at present, MSTY would follow. Additionally, MSTY's most attractive feature, its high yield rate, can also be its biggest drawback. If and when MSTY is unable to generate sufficient revenue through its options strategies, it will resort to returning capital to make up for yield shortfalls. In that case, investors will see their capital eroded, and MSTY will have a lower base on which it can generate returns, which in turn will lead to lower income and further capital distributions - a vicious cycle. Not a Time for Fresh Positions Even though I believe BTC’s price still has some room to grow before the beginning of a bear run, this is not the time to enter a fresh position in BTC or any assets related to it , as you would be catching the rally midway – which would be a momentum trade. Numerically speaking, BTC has a tendency for large drawdowns - 50% or more in most cases. With my price target of $225,000, the upside is around 100%. For many, the 1:2 risk-to-return ratio would be quite favorable. However, I still don't recommend this because my personal preference is to work with drawdowns that do not exceed 10%. In other words, I am a contrarian purist, and invest only when asset prices show a deep discount.