Trump Media: Bitcoin Strategy Is Key Now

Oct 21 2025 bitcoin


Summary Trump Media & Technology Group continues to struggle to generate meaningful revenue from its core social media business. DJT has aggressively raised capital, using much of it to pursue a Bitcoin treasury strategy and launch ETFs, but shareholder dilution is a concern. Recent efforts to diversify into financial products and crypto ETFs may not yield significant revenue due to late entry and strong competition. With limited revenue growth and a premium stock price, I maintain a Hold rating on DJT, awaiting evidence of sustainable business improvement. Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. ( DJT ) is the media and finance company associated with President Donald Trump. Despite the connections, the company struggles to make money, which doesn't bode well for the stock. Until that changes, it's hard to see DJT as a Buy. Summary of Previous Coverage When I wrote about DJT in February, I remarked on the large cash position it has accumulated from its SPAC merger and ATM equity offerings. With about $672M in cash and short-term investments at the end of Q3 2024, Screenshot from previous article (Q3 2024 Form 10Q) With almost no revenue from their underlying social media business, I opined that the cash cushion could at least stabilize things while short-term rates are higher, covering expenses while they manage to build up sales. They had guided that data center assets to support operations would be operational in Q4, but with those results not yet out, their contribution would be hard to peg. With no earnings and tangible book value per share well below the price at the time, I saw no case for undervaluation and rated the stock a Hold. Updated Financial Results Full-year 2024 results ultimately did not reflect much improvement in revenue from the underlying business. Income Statement (2024 Form 10K) The improvement in net interest income showed that they could improve the cash flow here, despite the increase in other operating expenses. Income Statement (Q2 2025 Form 10Q) Year-to-date results show that they have been able to derive more interest and investment income from the capital they raised, but revenue from the core business has not meaningfully improved. Balance Sheet (Q2 2025 Form 10Q) The first two quarters grew the balance sheet through more capital raises, visible through the $934M convertible note liability. While this strengthens the business in some ways, it's also been dilutive to shareholders. Q2 2025 Form 10Q DJT therefore seems to be a company that cannot readily make revenue from its social media business and is aggressively raising capital to pursue other ventures. ETFs and Crypto Shortly after I published my last article, the company announced intentions to diversify the business through strategic acquisitions, largely with a focus on launching ETFs and expanding into financial services. The idea seems to be an independent ecosystem of social media and finance (speech and money). In March, they announced a partnership with Crypto.com in forming crypto ETFs. In May, they announced a shift toward a Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) treasury model, in the vein of Strategy ( MSTR ). Most of the capital raised in the year is to be used for this purpose. Subsequent announcements spoke to the launch of various ETFs and expansions of their social media and streaming services. Outlook and Valuation As Q3 results approach, that will give us time to see if these changes to the business improve revenue and earnings in a meaningful way. For the media operations, it would need to be through higher subscription or ad revenue. For the financial services and products, it seems like most of it would be through management fees and the like. I have doubts, though. DJT has been slow to generate more than a few million in revenue. I am not sure why a company started by the sitting president would struggle to make sales, other than the simple fact that not very many people truly want the product. I don't see why Truth.FI (name of their subsidiary) ETFs would be the product of choice for crypto investors. ETFs' Share of BTC Market Cap (CoinMarketCap.com) As it stands , about $146B of the $2T BTC market cap is held in ETFs. This list (not all of which are purely BTC) shows how dominant just a few ETF issuers are in BTC. As late as the Truth BTC ETFs are, DJT would be lucky to get $500M in AUM for a 1% management fee, for about $5M in revenue. Obviously, that's not enough for them to eliminate cash burn. What will likely be most important in Q3 results will be the size of their current BTC holdings. Much like Strategy, if these continue to appreciate well compared to their cost of capital, it can create shareholder value without needing significant revenue growth. As Q2 ended with a tangible book value per share of $8.24, and BTC not any higher than then, however, recent share prices above $16 are likely a premium. It may be priced fairly for an improving situation, but I think there isn't undervaluation at this level. Conclusion DJT has spent 2025 trying a little bit of everything, and I suspect it will throw many things at the wall in hopes of finding what will stick. In the meantime, the main hope for shareholders is that the BTC treasury strategy creates value for them. Lacking any other clear advantages or sources of strong revenue, it's hard to see what makes DJT undervalued, and so I maintain a neutral Hold rating.

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